Zaher Baher

16 January 2026

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Donald Trump is not the fool that much of the global media and social media portray him to be. While his decisions, behaviour and policies can be hard to predict, he is a businessman and politician who generally follows through on his statements and presents himself consistently.

Unlike many before him, he does not appear to operate with a hidden agenda. His predecessors were less like independent businessmen and more like listeners who followed the interests of major companies. Trump, however, approaches politics as a businessman and is less influenced by corporate voices. In my view, his policies toward this system, and his efforts to preserve it, partly align with the interests of large companies in the United States and abroad. By allowing conflicts and turmoil to spread, attention is diverted away from public concerns and the media becomes occupied, weakening workers’ movements and the struggles of other oppressed groups.

 He understands that organizations like the UN and NATO no longer play the roles they were originally created for, and that their founding purposes have largely faded. He also believes they have become costly commitments for the United States, requiring the country to spend large amounts of money without receiving matching benefits.

Ukraine and Trump’s politics:

When you look at his approach to Ukraine, it is based on a practical view of the situation. Ukraine has been defeated, and a government that has lost a war cannot set terms for the side that has prevailed. For that reason, making peace sooner would bring Ukraine the greatest benefit. Trump also understands that NATO cannot enter the conflict directly, and he sees that many European governments and political parties are weak and often dependent on the electoral support of Islamic communities.

China and Russia:

Trump believes that China is engaged in an ongoing effort to gain global dominance and eventually replace the United States. He also understands that no matter what the United States does, it is unlikely to fully win this coming economic and strategic competition. Still, he knows it can be slowed down, and he aims to delay China’s rise for as long as possible.

Trump has identified several factors that could temporarily slow China’s advancement, reduce the pace of competition or create significant challenges for Beijing. He understands that the United States does not rely on oil now or in the future to the same extent, but he also knows that China depends heavily on oil as a primary source of energy to sustain and expand its economy, which in turn affects the economic balance with the United States.

Russia may not rely on oil and gas in the same way as the United States, but these resources are a major economic tool and a strategic weapon. They allow Russia to fund its wars and keep certain countries dependent on its energy, effectively keeping them under Putin’s influence. These countries desire oil and gas, but at a low cost.

Venezuela:

What Trump did in Venezuela was seize its oil fields so that millions of barrels of oil could be added to the global market each day. Doing this would lower the price of oil, which would hurt Russia by worsening its financial and economic situation. As a result, Russia might raise taxes on its citizens to make up for the losses from selling oil, reduce spending on public services, increase the cost of basic necessities, and cut or reduce aid to people who need help with daily living expenses. Meanwhile, the cost of importing anything into Russia would go up, and consumers would have to pay more. These effects and others would have a serious and damaging impact on the economy and directly affect how the government manages the country.

As for China it will inevitably face challenges from its competition with the United States, as well as from America’s economic influence over the countries where China invests.

What Trump is doing in Venezuela is not what I mentioned that some regional and international media are talking about. Trump knows that Venezuela is not only the heart and lifeline for some neighbouring countries and other states, but also a centre of aid and support for some countries, including Cuba, which receives 95 percent of its energy from Venezuela. Colombia is another example, as well as Caribbean countries like Trinidad and Tobago that have major trade agreements with Venezuela.

In addition, Trump can weaken the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), which now has 11 members, but Venezuela is not one of them. Venezuela applied to join BRICS, but Brazil blocked its membership because all BRICS members must agree for a new country to join, and without that approval Venezuela was left out of the group.

The BRICS leaders at recent summits have confirmed that there is no formal joint BRICS currency yet, and no official release date has been set. Instead, the bloc is focusing on other forms of monetary cooperation. Occasionally, they use digital currencies among themselves for trade and other purposes. If BRICS eventually launches its own currency, it could weaken the dollar, reducing its value and global influence. If events unfold according to Trump’s plan, both the BRICS countries and any future currency they introduce could be weakened, if not rendered completely useless.

Trump, whether we like him or not, or agree with him or not, is, in my view, a smart person who knows what he is doing. He wants the United States to maintain its position, ensure the economy stays at least as strong as it is, and make sure that economic growth benefits large corporations and the super-rich. He wants American companies and the wealthy to remain dominant. In short, he aims to take from the poor and give to the super-rich.

Venezuela, Cuba, Colombia and the United States:

Venezuela has historically been Cuba’s main supplier of oil and fuel under long‑standing bilateral agreements, often in exchange for services such as medical support and technical assistance. Venezuela accounted for about 95 percent of Cuba’s crude oil imports in 2022, and Cuba imported around $161 million worth of goods from Venezuela that year according to United Nations trade data, with crude oil and fuel products being the dominant category.

Trade between Venezuela and Colombia has grown again since 2022. Between January and July 2024, bilateral trade reached about $607 million, an increase of 36.5 percent compared to the same period in 2023. Figures show that from January to June 2025, total trade was approximately $560.7 million, up about 14.1 percent from the same period last year. From January to September 2025, trade volume continued rising, reaching about $863 million, an increase of around 8.3 percent compared to the same period in 2024.

Much of that expansion in trade comes from Colombian exports to Venezuela, including food, consumer goods, chemicals and plastics, which make up the majority of the exchange. Venezuelan exports to Colombia remain much smaller and consist mainly of goods such as iron and steel products, fertilizers, aluminium and some fuels. In short, the total value of trade with Colombia is now in the hundreds of millions of dollars each year, with the balance of trade heavily tilted toward Colombian exports. Two‑way trade is rising as cross‑border economic integration continues to recover after 2022.

Venezuela and the Caribbean

Venezuela has historically played a significant economic and political role in many Caribbean and Latin American countries, especially through concessional energy programs such as PetroCaribe. PetroCaribe was an agreement that allowed Caribbean states to buy Venezuelan oil on favourable terms, including long‑term financing and deferred payments, and it was a major driver of regional trade for more than a decade. The agreement helped many countries secure energy supplies at preferential prices but has largely been held up by Venezuela’s declining oil production and broader economic problems.
In the first seven months of 2024, Venezuelan exports to Aruba and Curaçao were about $6 million.

Trade relations with Trinidad and Tobago have been shaped by both opportunities for trade and energy cooperation, as well as recent diplomatic and logistical challenges. Trinidad and Tobago has sought to develop natural gas partnerships with Venezuela, including joint ventures to tap offshore gas fields, reflecting potential future energy‑related business. For example, the two countries signed a long‑term licence agreement to develop the Dragon gas field, which could supply natural gas across the maritime border and support Trinidad and Tobago’s energy industry.

However, such projects have faced regulatory, political and sanctions related setbacks, including changes in US licences and shifting diplomatic relations that have stalled or complicated development. As a result, overall trade with Trinidad and Tobago remains regionally significant but lower than past levels and has been limited recently

In 2019, Venezuela exported about $8.96 million worth of goods to Guyana, mainly refined petroleum products, while Guyana exported about $73.9 million worth of goods to Venezuela, with rice as its main export.

Trump and Greenland

Trump is not naive enough to believe that China or Russia will invade the island and pose a direct threat to the United States. He is fully aware of this, but he aims to be able to block Chinese and Russian ships in the future, if necessary, partly to create more challenges for Europe and its leaders. He might even seriously consider annexing the island to the United States, but not because of any immediate threat from Russia or China.

He chooses his timing and tactics very cleverly to achieve his goals. Many of us know that Trump wants two things: to challenge Europe and its leaders and to assert U.S. dominance over them. His strategy involved raising tariffs on European imports while framing compromises that still benefited the United States and himself.

The other goal is to focus on Russia and improve relations with it. In this case, he aims to stop the war between Russia and Ukraine and broker an agreement that serves the interests of both Russia and the United States.

He tried hard, but European hardline leaders, especially in Britain and Germany, still insist on agreements that benefit Ukraine and themselves. Trump, in turn, has no choice but to create events or situations that put them in a fragile position, forcing them to agree to his terms. In this scenario, either Trump’s demands are met, or he withdraws from involvement in the Ukraine–Russia conflict. If that happens, Europe will lack the capacity to further support Ukraine and secure its victory. Meanwhile, Russia would gradually occupy more territory in Ukraine. The consequence is that the next agreement between the two sides would be even more difficult, leaving European politicians with no option but to accept what they would see as an insult and humiliation.

The question is whether this will work for Trump and if he can stop China and its rise to hegemony. Only the future will tell.

Whatever the outcome whether the United States remains dominant or China or another country takes its place there will be no fundamental change in the lives of workers and oppressed people worldwide, and the wage labor system will continue. There is no good capitalism or bad capitalism, just as there is no inherently good or bad state. Capitalism is a global system, and the state is its strongest pillar. To challenge it, we must collectively act locally, think globally, and offer solidarity to those resisting the system wherever possible. This requires organizing ourselves everywhere in horizontal organizations and groups. These are the means to build a classless and non-hierarchical society that is, to create a socialist/ anarchist society.