Zaher Baher

17/06/2024

In the recent EU parliamentary elections, Marine Le Pen’s party won 30 percent of the vote, compared with 14.6 percent by Macron’s party. Following this defeat, Emmanuel Macron called for general elections on July 30 and a second round on July 7.

Many economists, politicians, and political analysts have dismissed this move as a big gamble, believing it will be very difficult for Macron to win the election. While no one can predict the complete victory of either party, I think Macron’s decision is a smart tactic. Waiting until 2027 for the general elections is likely to be more detrimental than holding them now.

Economic Context

A French debt crisis has been simmering for years. The country’s credit rating has been downgraded twice in the last six months, and its overall debt burden has soared to 112% of GDP. France now ranks third in the world for total outstanding debt, behind only Japan and the United States, both of which have larger economies and their own currencies.

France has not balanced its budget for 50 years. Even with the Eurozone economy recovering from the pandemic, France is still running a deficit of 5.1% of GDP this year, well ahead of its forecast level.

Macron’s Campaign: A Smart Tactic?

In my opinion, Macron’s campaign strategy is smart because it could enable him to continue his rule for another five years.

Support from Leftists and Unions

It would have been impossible for Macron to come to power without the support of the leftists and the unions in the previous elections. They all voted for him out of fear that Marine Le Pen would win. This situation is repeating itself now, with Marine Le Pen’s party increasingly threatening and having greater hopes of winning a majority in parliament.

The official media, along with leftists and unions, consciously remind us that the extreme right is growing. This benefits Macron, as he needs to exhaust himself less in the election campaign. The media and the leftist support prefer Macron to win.

Why Fear Marine Le Pen?

In my opinion, Marine Le Pen is as dangerous to workers and society as Macron and other European statesmen. Whoever is in power is bound by the state and the system. They cannot step outside this circle without breaking themselves.

What can the arrival of Marine Le Pen or any other extreme right in France do? Can they send all the Muslims, immigrants, and refugees back? Can they ban abortion in a country like France? Can they close the borders to immigrants and refugees completely? Can they make mass arrests and easily repress people? Can they reduce and maintain workers’ existing wages and entitlements?

I believe the answer to all these questions is no. Firstly, the French people are resilient. Secondly, the system does not allow such drastic changes because it would be detrimental to itself. Most importantly, if the extreme right were to implement such measures, it would lead to their downfall, loss of votes, and support, ultimately diminishing their chances of growing and coming back to power.